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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Breaking The Lowest To Affect Market

The US dollar plunged to a record low against the Euro in April. This happened immediately after the economic growth figures for the U.S. were released by the U.S. Commerce reporting the weakest results in four years. The release of these figures has people worried that the United States is in danger of falling behind the rest of the world economically, especially with the USD losing over 3.1% to the Euro already this year. The USD low was partnered with a Euro high, reaching past its previous high in December of 2004, above $1.3680, for the first time ever.

Euro and USD extremes are going to have significant affects on trade within both Europe and the United States. Some groups are happy and are benefiting from the weakness of the dollar and the strength of the Euro, whereas others are losing large amounts of both money and business. A number of American exporters have gained significant amounts as a result of the weakness of the dollar; however one major U.S. business has suffered greatly due to these exchange rates. Walmart, who produces over 70% of their goods in China, is suffering due to the weakness of the dollar. The company has tried to find less pricey areas for production; however there is only so much they can do to battle the plummeting dollar.

Euro strength and dollar weakness are also affecting many European companies. The economy of the Eurozone is one that is export dependant. Under normal circumstances, export driven economies benefit from a weaker currency and typically hurt when the currency is too strong. With the rise of the Euro, European exporters and manufactures have much higher costs, which lead them to lose money unless they raise their prices, which most companies are reluctant to do.

It is not just European and American companies that are suffering from the prices of the USD and Euro. Any country that trades with either the United States or an EU nation is at risk for exchange rate fluctuations affecting their imports and/or exports.

Although, there is no way to completely eliminate foreign exchange rate risk and it will always be an issue for exporters and importers, there are ways to make yourself or your company less vulnerable. Hedging foreign exchange rate risks is not a new idea, but many companies are just recently learning the importance of hedging against these risks. As more companies take advantage of this financial technique, exchange rate losses lessen, and the price of a currency at any point in time has less of a chance of making or breaking a company. Individual investors can also hedge their foreign exchange rate risk through currency trading.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Red Carpet Is blurred

Today is 80th Academy Awards so the Red Carpet is sparkling shine with the glamorours celebrities wearing their designers cuts to hit the upcoming fabric industries. But, it still won't help the USD home sales report.

Federal Reserve Governor and FOMC voting member Randall Kroszner will speak about risk management at the Global Association of Risk Management Professionals Annual Risk Convention, in New York. Audience questions expected. FOMC voting members are responsible for setting the nation's short term interest rate, so traders scrutinize their speeches closely for clues regarding future monetary policy.

Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it's the month's first demand-side housing indicator to be released.

Any how, in TF 4HR EUR/USD the bearish divergence were spotted and waiting to drop down to 1.4653 maximumly. Its about 140 pips you can earn with this craze tips.

WARNING! This is just a personal thought. Please trade at your own risk. Trade that you afford to loose. CHEERS

Friday, February 22, 2008

Welcome back cable

Its been a while that I'm not trading with cable. Due to the spread, the price per lot and big movement sometimes shaking my margin and capital. I looking forward to get back on track with the cable. cheers

Monday, February 11, 2008

Bulls on 11Feb08

Last week on Tuesday, 05Feb2008 is a bearish-ing market. Thats mean my CNY strategy is working. Confirmed 162 pips for optimum target and 2-3 profit target is max out to 1.4439. Its about 347 pips maximum.

For this week market, I predict its gonna be a bullish market due trader and investor gonna start making money again. Even though last week, Ringgit is close higher than Dollar. It is just nothing because inflation is inflating. Someone gonna do something to balance it.

Thats for now I think. To be continue...

Friday, February 8, 2008

Clue or clueless

Dear all readers, did you ever experienced you brain is being lagged? I wonder how and i cant say more about it. Most of indicator is lagging indicator and some amount of trader is depend on it to make a trade decision.

Indicator is just a story teller from the past. Remember that history is part of trading as well, so don't let indicator especially lagging indicator be your decision maker. After a few month of experienced in forex trading, I find that indicator is just a guide factor to confirm with the candle sticks. To see where it goes, Fibonacci is there to show you what, where and when it will go.

If you need a moral support, I suggest you try this. Check it out here and some comments please.
Its quite weird, but it helps me so far. Adjust it with spreads and times two. Good luck.

Sunday, February 3, 2008

CNY Strategy

Starting from tomorrow there will be a bearish for EUR/USD due coming soon Chinese New Year Holiday on Thursday and Friday for most Asia country especially Republic of China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Malaysia also get two public holiday for it.

The bearish factor, maybe. I repeat, maybe because of the last week bullish and confirm a divergence in the making. So most trader gonna take profit and the price was starting to dive in.

I would say the price gonna hit the pivot for the two weeks within this week. There is a lot of news that gonna rocks the market. Hopefully everyone can take advantage of it.

The entry should be like this :

Short : 1.4786
t/p : 1.4624
s/l : 1.4948

Initial risk : 162 pips
2-3 profit target is 1.4462 to 1.4300

WARNING!!! This is just personal thought, so trade at your own risk.

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